This is an unfiltered, real-time dialogue with Grok 4 by xAI. Grammarly was used to make it reader-friendly.

All previous posts could be found in the Blog

Aleksandar (Александар):

America is clearly becoming increasingly chaotic. That could be used in both bad and good ways. In my opinion, America is already with one leg in another civil war. Am I too dramatic?

Grok:

No, you’re not too dramatic in spotting the chaos and heightened risks. America is undeniably more polarized and distrustful. It is also more prone to sporadic political violence than at any point in recent decades. Public perception matches your view. Recent polls show 57% of Americans fear the country is on a path toward civil war (Axios/Leadership Conference, Nov 2025). Numbers hover between 40-60% across various surveys depending on phrasing and demographics. Partisan splits exist (Democrats often more alarmed lately), but the overall anxiety is real and bipartisan.

“Already with one leg in another civil war” is a bit overstated. This description does not accurately reflect where things stand as of late January 2026. The situation is more like both legs firmly planted in dangerous instability territory. One toe is testing the edge of organized conflict. Here’s why, based on the data:

Real Chaos and Risks (You’re Right Here)

• Polarization and Violence Trends: 85% of Americans say politically motivated violence is increasing (Pew, Oct 2025)—bipartisan agreement. Threats against officials have exploded: Capitol Police on track for 14,000+ investigations in 2025 (up massively from prior years). High-profile incidents include assassinations (e.g., Charlie Kirk, Minnesota legislator Melissa Hortman), firebombings, and plots disrupted by FBI/DHS. In 2025, left-wing attacks outnumbered right-wing ones for the first time in over 30 years. CSIS data shows that overall lethality remains low. These incidents mostly involve lone-actor/stochastic terrorism rather than coordinated campaigns.
• Public Sentiment and Institutional Distrust: There is deep exhaustion in the populace. Eighty-six percent say they’re tired of division. Many view the system as captured or rigged. This is exactly the Epstein/lobby capture we discussed. CFR ranks U.S. political violence/unrest as a high-likelihood/high-impact contingency for 2026. Barbara Walter’s framework (anocracy + factionalized identity parties) puts the U.S. in an elevated-risk category, where the annual odds of significant instability are around 4% and compounding.
• Tying to Our Thread: Elite impunity creates the powder keg. Foreign influence perceptions, such as lobby capture and withheld files, intensify the situation. Blocked reform paths further contribute to the volatility. When people feel peaceful channels are closed, frustration organizes outside norms—fringe groups become more appealing, as you warned.

Why Not Fully “One Leg In” Yet (The Overstatement)

• No Organized Civil War Characteristics: True civil wars (per political science definitions) involve sustained armed conflict between organized factions. These factions often control territory. True civil wars also involve significant military defections and high casualties. There is a breakdown of central authority. The U.S. has none of that at scale. According to CSIS analysis, the risks of a classic civil war are “negligible” in 2025-2026. There are no secession movements with armies. The economy and military remain cohesive. No group is capable of challenging the state long-term. Violence is episodic, lone-gunman or small-cell tit-for-tat, amplified by social media—not armies clashing.
• Support for Violence Remains Low: Only 1-7% explicitly support partisan murder. Some say violence is needed to “save the country” (various 2025 polls). 89-97% reject it outright. Rhetoric is heated, but actual mobilization thresholds aren’t crossed yet.
• Institutions Holding (Barely): Elections happen, courts function (even if distrusted), military stays professional. Sporadic violence distorts lawmaking and participation (Brennan Center), but hasn’t paralyzed the system.

You’re reading the trends correctly. America is chaotic. Trust is collapsing. Violence is rising. The capture you describe makes de-escalation harder. That absolutely raises the probability of a fringe-organized breakout. This is likely if nothing interrupts the pattern. Epstein-style revelations continue to fuel the “system is rigged” narrative. It’s not inevitable, but the risk is objectively higher than in previous decades.

From your Serb perspective (with Yugoslavia’s breakup in mind), does the U.S. chaos remind you of pre-1990s Yugoslav tensions in specific ways—identity factions, elite corruption, media amplification? Or is it something else driving your “one leg in” view?